Doug Schoen, a former pollster for President Bill Clinton, appeared on Fox News’ The Ingraham Angle on Thursday, where he discussed former President Donald Trump’s growing appeal among minority voters and how this could potentially disrupt the Democratic hold on key battleground states.
Speaking with host Laura Ingraham, Schoen laid out how shifts in voter demographics, particularly among working-class and minority groups, are creating challenges for Democrats in states long considered to be strongholds.
Schoen pointed to significant changes in voter dynamics, particularly in what is known as the ‘blue wall,’ a group of traditionally Democratic-leaning states such as Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
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These states have historically played a crucial role in determining the outcome of presidential elections, but Schoen warned that these strongholds are showing signs of weakening.
“I think what we’re seeing is the working-class vote is moving in the direction of Trump. Non-college educated voters, blue-collar men, are all moving in Trump’s direction,” Schoen stated during the interview.
He also noted the importance of the minority vote in this shift, saying, “Some movement, as you suggested, Laura, among minorities in Wisconsin, African Americans, to Trump.”
This movement toward Trump is not only limited to Wisconsin. Schoen also highlighted similar trends in Michigan and other Southern states, pointing out a broader realignment happening in key areas of the country. “Basically, the blue wall in Wisconsin and Michigan is eroding as the South, defined as Georgia, North Carolina, Southwest Arizona, appear to be trending Trump,” he explained.
According to Schoen, these states are becoming more competitive and could swing in Trump’s favor.
Schoen further emphasized that five swing states—Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona—could potentially decide the outcome of the election, with Trump gaining momentum in each.
He added that Pennsylvania could be a key state to watch. “If Pennsylvania goes, the election is over,” Schoen said, citing current trends. “It’s not over, you’re right, but it sure is moving Trump’s direction.”
In the 2020 election, Joe Biden won with significant support from minority voters, including 92% of the black vote, according to the Pew Research Center.
However, recent data shows some erosion in that support. A poll from the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research indicated that while around 70% of black registered voters view Kamala Harris favorably, there is uncertainty about her ability to bring positive change to the country.
Meanwhile, Trump has seen a rise in support among blue-collar voters. Polls show he has a 31-point lead among trade school graduates and a 17-point increase in support from non-white, non-college educated voters since 2020.
On the other hand, Harris has struggled to maintain the same level of support from union voters, holding only a nine-point lead compared to the double-digit advantages of previous Democratic candidates.
Recent polls from Michigan, including those by Michigan News Source and MIRS, show Trump now leading in the state, giving him a 58.8% chance of winning the Electoral College against Harris.
This marks a shift from earlier tight polling reported by The New York Times and Siena College in September, indicating that Trump’s appeal to working-class and minority voters may be making a substantial difference in battleground states as the election draws nearer.
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