CNN’s senior data reporter, Harry Enten, highlighted on Monday how former President Donald Trump is gaining significant support from working-class voters, including union members and non-college graduates, as the 2024 presidential race intensifies.
Enten’s analysis comes in light of recent internal polling from the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, which showed nearly 60% of its members favoring Trump over Kamala Harris.
On September 18, the union declined to endorse a candidate for the upcoming election, underscoring a shift in its membership’s preferences.
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During a segment on CNN News Central, Enten noted the dramatic shift in union household support for Democrats compared to previous elections. “Sometimes there are data points that just jump off the screen, should set off sirens,” Enten said.
He pointed out how Democrats’ hold on union voters has significantly weakened over the years.
In the 1992 election, Bill Clinton won union voters by 30 points, but by 2016, Hillary Clinton’s margin had dropped to 12 points, the lowest for a Democrat since 1984.
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“Look at where Kamala Harris is today,” Enten said, referring to the current race. “She’s only leading by nine points. That would be the worst Democratic performance in a generation.” Enten also emphasized that Harris’s nine-point lead is 10 points lower than President Joe Biden’s margin when he won the union vote by 19 points four years ago.
Enten then shifted focus to another key demographic: vocational and trade school graduates, whom he differentiated from union workers.
He cited polling data that showed a significant shift in support toward Trump. “Bill Clinton was leading that vote over George H.W. Bush by seven points,” Enten noted, comparing it to the current situation, where Trump holds a 31-point lead over Harris among this group.
Enten described these voters as being part of the working class, particularly those “who use their hands.”
Trump’s growing appeal to working-class voters has become a central theme of his 2024 campaign.
Enten noted that Trump’s strong position with these voters, especially trade school graduates, marks a significant realignment in American politics. “That has moved from being a core Democratic group to now being a core group of Donald Trump’s massive amount of support among the working class,” Enten explained.
Additionally, Enten highlighted that Trump is performing better than in past elections with black and Hispanic voters, particularly among non-college graduates.
He pointed out that Biden won this group by 45 points four years ago, but Harris’s lead has narrowed to 28 points.
The drop in support among non-college-educated voters of color is a major reason for Trump’s surge in this demographic, while support among college-educated voters of color has only decreased by five points.
“This is part of a larger trend that we’re seeing throughout our politics,” Enten said. “Republicans, specifically Donald Trump, are doing very, very well among working-class voters, whether they were in unions, whether they went to trade school, or whether they’re voters of color.”
As the 2024 election approaches, Trump’s increasing appeal to traditionally Democratic voter groups poses a challenge for Kamala Harris, who is currently trailing behind in several key demographics that were once solidly Democratic.
Enten’s analysis suggests that Trump has made significant inroads with these voters, reshaping the political landscape ahead of the election.
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