As the 2024 election season approaches, Donald J. Trump appears to be performing stronger than ever in the polls, particularly in key Midwestern states.
Despite Kamala Harris’s efforts to gain ground, the race remains closer than Democrats might hope, as polling data suggests she is not doing well enough to counter Donald Trump’s growing support in key voter demographics.
BREAKING: Trump is the “clear favorite” in the 2024 election under latest national polling, per CNN & Silver Bulletin.
Electoral College win probability:
Trump – 68.4%
Harris – 30.9%— Leading Report (@LeadingReport) October 3, 2024
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In the 2020 election, Joe Biden won Pennsylvania by a narrow margin of just 80,000 votes.
His victory was far from a landslide, and Trump only needed 46,000 more votes across key swing states to secure re-election.
With that in mind, the fact that Harris is only leading Trump by two to three points in some polls is raising concerns within Democratic circles about her ability to hold off a potential Trump comeback.
CNN’s “poll of polls” now indicates that Trump has a nearly 70 percent chance of winning the 2024 election, based on current polling data.
CNN’s poll of polls gives Trump a nearly 70% chance of winning the election (68.4% to Kamala’s 30.9% to be exact).
32 days to Election Day.
Harris-Walz was given almost the full backing of the media
T-ball interviews
Blatantly biased debate moderators
It may not matter… pic.twitter.com/Rbq9Xur4op
— Joe Concha (@JoeConchaTV) October 3, 2024
One of the most concerning trends for Harris is her underperformance with core Democratic voter groups, including union workers.
Reports indicate that she is struggling to connect with union voters, and projections suggest she could become one of the worst-performing Democrats with this group in a generation.
In addition to that, she is underperforming among Black and Jewish voters, two key constituencies that have historically leaned heavily toward Democratic candidates.
While Harris may be doing better than Biden in some specific areas, experts point out that her performance is still lacking the momentum needed to create a substantial lead over Trump.
CNN Senior Data Reporter shows a map of what the electoral college would look like if the polls were off to the same degree they were in 2020.
The result: 312 electoral votes for Donald Trump. pic.twitter.com/oVBLfpfqc1
— johnny maga (@_johnnymaga) September 20, 2024
However, with such tight margins and significant portions of the electorate still in play, neither campaign can afford to let up.
🚨Election Forecasting Models Are Converging
Our models have shown a steady edge for Trump in the Electoral College since Sept 1, and outperforming national polls. As the industry catches up, expect the race to shift toward Trump in the coming week(s).
Our next update will come… https://t.co/NfV3esmEO5 pic.twitter.com/DFMVJnGRWN
— Quantus Insights (@QuantusInsights) October 4, 2024
Both Harris and Trump will continue to push their messages to voters across the country in the final stretch leading up to November.
The ultimate outcome will depend heavily on the decisions made by these critical voter groups.
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