Recent polling data shows a dramatic shift in the presidential race between former President Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, with Trump gaining ground after weeks of trailing Harris.
According to NBC News’ latest survey, conducted between October 4 and 8, Trump and Harris are now tied at 48 percent each in a head-to-head matchup.
New NBC News National Poll
(1,000 RV; 10/4-8; MOE +/- 3.1%)Trump 48%
Harris 48%Last month (post-debate)
Trump 44%
Harris 49%— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) October 13, 2024
Patriotic beachwear for freedom lovers! Shop now and get 10% off with code RB10. Vet & LEO-founded.
When third-party candidates such as Cornel West and Dr. Jill Stein are included, Trump edges out Harris by one point, 47 percent to 46 percent.
This represents a significant change from a September NBC poll, where Harris led Trump by five points, 49 percent to 44 percent.
The October poll also shows that 4 percent of voters remain undecided or unwilling to choose between the two major-party candidates.
The inclusion of third-party candidates has increased uncertainty in the race, as seven percent of respondents indicated support for other candidates or remained undecided.
In addition to the tight race, the latest poll reflects shifts in the favorability ratings of both candidates.
NBC Poll: Impression of Candidates
Trump
Positive 43%
Negative 51%Harris
Positive 43%
Negative 49%
—-
Last month:
Trump
Positive 40%
Negative 53%Harris
Positive 48%
Negative 45%— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) October 13, 2024
Trump’s favorability has improved by three points since September, while Harris has seen her popularity decline from 48 percent to 43 percent.
Trump’s job performance, measured retroactively, stands at 48 percent, higher than it was during his presidency.
The poll also revealed that 45 percent of respondents believe the Biden-Harris administration’s policies are negatively impacting them, compared to just 25 percent who said they have benefited.
“VP Kamala Harris had a five point lead in our last poll taken a month ago, right after the debate. That lead has all but evaporated. Willie, take a look at this new head to head matchup, 48% to 48%. That is what we call a deadlocked race.” – @KWelkerNBC on a new @NBCNews poll. pic.twitter.com/HBLPS0ybtv
— TODAY (@TODAYshow) October 13, 2024
Another poll released by the Wall Street Journal on Sunday further highlights the competitive nature of the race.
The Journal found Trump leading Harris by a narrow margin, 46 percent to 45 percent, with swing states still too close to call.
The NBC News poll aligns with the findings of other recent polls that have historically leaned toward Harris.
In September, ABC News/Ipsos consistently showed Harris with a lead over Trump, but the latest numbers indicate that her advantage has dwindled to just two points.
#NEW NATIONAL poll
🔵 Harris: 50% (+2)
🔴 Trump: 48%Last poll: Harris+6
ABC & Ipsos | Oct. 4-8 | N=1,714LV
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 13, 2024
This four-point swing toward Trump has caused concern within the Harris campaign, especially with the election fast approaching.
CNN’s polling expert Harry Enten provided additional analysis, noting Trump’s improving performance with key demographic groups. “Donald Trump is going to put up the best performance with Black voters since Richard Nixon back in 1960 and among Hispanic voters, his performance for Republicans will be the best since 2004 under George W. Bush,” Enten said.
CNN: “Donald Trump’s going to put up the best performance with black voters since Nixon in 1960. Among Hispanics, Trump’s going to put up the best performance for a Republican since 2004.”
This had to hurt to say 😂 pic.twitter.com/bgDHO1iTGr
— Sara Rose 🇺🇸🌹 (@saras76) October 13, 2024
This surge in support from minority voters could be a critical factor in the final weeks of the race.
The recent polling data underscores the volatile nature of the 2024 presidential election as both Trump and Harris continue to navigate an intensely competitive landscape.
With only a few weeks remaining before Election Day, both campaigns will likely ramp up their efforts to win over undecided voters and secure their base of support.
As the polling stands, the race remains too close to call, and the outcome could hinge on key swing states and the impact of third-party candidates.
Both Trump and Harris face the challenge of maintaining their momentum in the final stretch of the campaign, with polling data showing a shifting tide in favor of the former president.
.
