Kamala Harris has experienced a significant boost in the polls since becoming the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee, leading to questions about the nature of her rapid rise, as reported by Just the News.
This surge comes despite her historically low approval ratings and a lackluster performance during the 2020 Democratic primary, where she struggled to gain traction.
In the days following Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race, several polls have shown Harris taking the lead over former President Donald Trump in a potential head-to-head matchup.
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According to RealClearPolitics (RCP), Harris currently holds a 1.5% lead over Trump, with 48.2% support compared to his 46.7%.
However, this shift has sparked concern among some pollsters who question the transparency and methodology of the surveys showing Harris ahead.
Critics, including Trump pollster John McLaughlin, have raised alarms about what they perceive as oversampling of Democratic voters in certain states, which they argue is inflating Harris’s numbers.
“So what they’re doing is they’re polling fewer Republicans. They’re polling a disproportionate number of Biden 2020 voters in these states that were dead even,” McLaughlin said during an appearance on “Just the News, No Noise.” He suggested that these tactics are being used to artificially boost Harris’s standing while suppressing the Republican vote.
This man’s friend worked for a polling company and was an Obama’s pollster and she said do NOT buy the hype on Kamala. : “She’s like, the polling we’re doing you cannot take the least popular vice president ever in American history and transition that into she is now beating… pic.twitter.com/9XEsAmt9UE
— ꪻꫝể ꪻꫝể (@TheThe1776) August 21, 2024
This polling phenomenon, which some have dubbed the “Harris Honeymoon,” was anticipated by GOP strategists. Tony Fabrizio, another Trump pollster, warned in a memo that Harris would likely see a temporary boost in the polls following Biden’s exit, fueled by favorable media coverage and the energy within the Democratic base.
Fabrizio noted that while this surge might be significant in the short term, it may not reflect lasting changes in voter sentiment, especially on key issues like inflation and crime.
Polling data shows that Harris’s lead is not uniform across all surveys. The RCP average includes polls from various sources, with Fox News, Rasmussen Reports, and CNBC being the only ones currently showing Trump in the lead.
Harris’s strongest leads come from other polls that have faced criticism for their sampling techniques, such as a recent Washington Post/ABC News/Ipsos survey that showed her with a four-point lead over Trump. This poll, which questioned 2,336 U.S. adults, did not disclose demographic breakdowns of the respondents, leading to questions about its reliability.
Statewide polling has also raised eyebrows, with some surveys deviating significantly from the expected partisan breakdowns based on the 2020 election exit polls.
For example, a New York Times/Siena College poll in Georgia showed Harris trailing Trump by four points, but with a sample that included 5% fewer Republicans than were reflected in the 2020 exit polls.
Similar trends were observed in polls conducted in North Carolina, Michigan, and Wisconsin, where the number of Republicans surveyed was notably lower than expected.
McLaughlin has been vocal about these discrepancies, pointing out that the polling landscape shifted dramatically following Biden’s departure and Harris’s elevation to the top of the ticket.
He highlighted how initial polling showed Trump leading Harris, only for the narrative to change after a series of surveys showing Harris gaining ground. “He went into the month up two points. He was out of the month leading Harris by two points,” McLaughlin noted, emphasizing the rapid change in the race dynamics.
While national polls give Harris a slight edge, the real test will come in the battleground states that determine the Electoral College.
CNN senior data reporter displays the polling inaccuracies in 2016 & 2020
“If you’re a Kamala Harris fan & you want to rip open that champagne bottle — pop that cork — DO NOT DO IT… if we have a polling shift like we’ve seen in prior years… Donald Trump would actually win” pic.twitter.com/Vzn4sCBYrQ
— johnny maga (@_johnnymaga) August 13, 2024
Current projections from RealClearPolitics, assuming no toss-ups, show Trump with 287 electoral votes to Harris’s 251. Trump is currently projected to win key states like Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia, while Harris leads in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Virginia.
A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to secure the presidency.
As the race continues, both candidates will likely face increasing scrutiny, with pollsters and analysts watching closely to see if Harris’s polling bump is sustained or if it fades as the election draws nearer.
The debates and campaign trail will provide further insight into how voters are responding to the candidates and their positions on critical issues.
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