With just three weeks remaining until Election Day, Donald Trump’s chances of defeating Kamala Harris have significantly improved in six of the seven critical swing states, according to recent data from the betting platform Polymarket.
🚨 BREAKING: Trump just SOARED to an all-time high against Kamala Harris with a 13.5-point lead in this morning’s Polymarket. pic.twitter.com/RtSi3E2ogv
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 15, 2024
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Trump has seen his favorability rise in key battleground states, including Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.
These states are expected to play a pivotal role in determining the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.
In Arizona, a state that saw a narrow Democratic victory in 2020, Trump’s odds of winning have climbed, reflecting a growing momentum for the former president.
Similarly, his favorability has increased in Georgia and Pennsylvania, both of which were key battlegrounds in the previous election cycle.
Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin have also seen shifts in Trump’s favor as the election nears.
One notable exception to this trend is Nevada, where Harris holds a slim lead.
According to Polymarket, the vice president has a 51 percent chance of winning in Nevada, while Trump is close behind at 49 percent.
Despite its Democratic leanings in recent cycles, Nevada remains a closely contested state that could sway the election in either direction.
Overall, Trump has gained 2.5 percent in his national odds of beating Harris.
Polymarket currently places the former president’s chances of victory at 56.5 percent, compared to Harris’ 43.1 percent.
These figures come as political bettors and analysts watch the race intensify in the final weeks before Election Day.
Polymarket, which is partially funded by early Trump supporter Peter Thiel, offers a different perspective from traditional polling methods.
While some national polls continue to show Harris with a narrow lead, betting markets like Polymarket often reflect a different sentiment, particularly among those who are wagering on the outcome of the election.
Thomas Miller, a data scientist at Northwestern University, echoed this sentiment, predicting a landslide victory for Trump and his running mate, J.D. Vance, based on contract prices from another betting platform,
PredictIt. Miller’s analysis suggests that the betting markets may be capturing momentum and voter enthusiasm that traditional polls may miss.
As the 2024 election approaches, the seven swing states in focus — Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Nevada — are shaping up to be the deciding factor.
Each state holds a significant number of electoral votes, and both campaigns are focusing heavily on these areas to secure a win.
The shift in Trump’s favorability across these key states signals that the race remains highly competitive, with both candidates vying for last-minute support.
With Election Day just weeks away, the outcome in these battlegrounds will be critical in determining who wins the presidency in 2024.
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